Roadmapping 3G mobile TV: Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling

Abstract_In order to deal with growing uncertainties emerging in the 3G wireless industry and to preserve
their competitiveness, managers involved in the wireless value network should identify future
success very early and develop their strategic planning on time. This study, based on a Scenario
Evaluation and Analysis through Repeated Cross impact Handling, allows the generation of both
qualitative and quantitative scenarios and can be used as an operative planning tool. The dynamic
forces driving the scenario are based on the main principles of system thinking and multiple
features. The probabilistic data have been elicitedwith the help of 40 executives in USA and Europe
working for companies in the different phases of the wireless value chain. Findings allow to
identify basic trends and uncertainties useful to develop corporate or business strategies.